An accumulation of recent events; threats of loss of resources for many, tariffs threatening to make high costs higher, ferry disruptions, an earthquake in March big enough to rattle dishes throughout homes across the county, have caused islanders to come together as a community and discuss ways to be better prepared and resilient in the face of emergencies.

“When I first came to the island, I felt like I had to convince people there were things we needed to think about, that we had to worry about. I would hit people with a bit of doom and gloom. I don’t know when it shifted, but in the last five years, all of a sudden I feel like everyone is way more freaked out than I am.” Brendan Cowan, Director of the San Juan County Department of Emergency Management, addressed a crowded grange April 17 during a presentation.

The event was the second in a series of discussions focusing on island resiliency at the Grange. A third will be held May 15, and the resilency focused events will continue on the third Thursday of every month.

Another group called San Juan Island Prepare had gathered April 15. “I was stunned at the diversity of valuable skills that you have identified including physicians, nurses, search and rescue, educators, hunters, growers, welders, large equipment operators, ham radio experts, pilots, boaters, survivalists and more. People have offered land for farming and spare bedrooms in the event of an emergency,” organizer Elizabeth Gadbois wrote participants in an email. Fifty people attended that workshop, and there are plans to continue with another event in May. To learn more, visit www.SanJuanIslandsPrepare.org.

“I was really impressed at the diversity and talent that showed up last night. One of the reasons we are doing this is because of the dismantling of FEMA. Many FEMA programs are getting gutted. We have to look after ourselves and each other,” Gadbois told the Journal later.

“We don’t want to erase your fears, because there are things we need to be thoughtful about,” Cowan clarified to attendees on April 17. Such emergencies include storms, fires, earthquakes, tsunamis and long-term ferry disruptions.

Cowan began with tsunamis. Unlike the outer coast of Washington, San Juan County does not have tsunami sirens. The earthquake prior to the tsunami is the alarm, Cowan said. “When you feel that earthquake, it will be an earthquake liek you have never felt. You won’t be able to stand up, things will be falling, it won’t be like that little earthquake we just had.”

Once the ground stops shaking, islanders will have approximately 45 minutes to get to high ground. High ground in the islands generally won’t be that far away. Due to the steep glacial formation of the islands and their typically high shorelines, it will be easier for people to get to higher ground than the outer coast of Washington. The outer coast is full of long, slow, steady grades of shoreline. As a result, such an event would locally, likely be survivable. “We are going to have a lot of property damage, but we shouldn’t have any loss of life because you all now know if you feel an earthquake, go to high ground,’ Cowan said.

Places likely impacted heaviest by a tsunami are Crescent Beach on Orcas, the south end of Lopez, and South Beach on San Juan, according to Cowan. For those curious, computer models are available on the DEM website highlighting high impact areas, https://sjcgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=0951a858b32c4b8da0b44299610e9921 as well as a tsunami similation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5PJQW_6k6M. Cowan noted that the ocean water would slosh around the islands for a good 14-15 hours. The water will be moving fast, he added, an estimated nine to 15 knots on top of how quickly the current is already moving.

The Cascadia Subduction zone, located along the Washington, Oregon and California coast, is not the only source of earthquakes. There are smaller fault lines that run through the island that could cause heavy earthquakes as well. The last major quake of the Cascadian Subduction zone was 300 years ago, and researchers believe a serious nine-point quake occurs between every 300-600 years.

“If the impacts are from California all the way to BC, we won’t be on anyone’s list for getting help in that scenario,” Cowan cautioned, it would be disaster conditions, and Cowan did not downplay that. “There will be no water, no power and no food,” he said of that scenario, encouraging people to bear that in mind and prepare accordingly, with supplies for up to 30 days. Retrofiting houses, especially older ones, is also a good idea.

“Some people ask me ‘Why would I want to be prepared?’” Cowan said. “To me, the main reason is because if you are prepared you are going to be a resource for your community.”

Cowan moved on to fire danger, with Chief Noel Monin to add additional comment.

“There is legitimately a fire risk. We need to be careful, we need to be thoughtful. There are things we need to do to prepare. But I want to reassure you the fire risk is much lower than just about anywhere in the American West,” Cowan said. While it does get dry in the summers, but there is still a high humidity, and unlike other areas, the islands don’ tend to get hot, dry wind all at the same time the way California or even Eastern Washington do. The islands also don’t have expansive wilderness, and smoke is easily spotted if not by a neighbor or someone driving by, then by someone in a plane or boat. That being said, the risk of fire is not zero. People should be conscious during dry seasons not to inadvertantly start a fire. One of the best ways to prepare ones home or property is to participate in Wildfire Ready. People can sign up and someone will asses the property, pointing out any areas where there may be a risk, and work with the property owner to mitigate it.

“In the past, [potential disaster] was hard to explain to people. But we have all been through the pandemic, when we saw this shift, and couldn’t believe this was happening. We all adapted in different ways. It wasn’t easy, but it was a life lesson in getting through a disaster where you have to be nimble, you have to be kind and be a decent, patient person and help the community,” Cowan said in closing, noting that through his twenty plus years of working in disaster management, going to disaster relief areas, it has been his experience that the communities that come together and help one another have been the ones more resilient through a disaster, and the ones to rebound quicker from it.

“I have every confidence that the islands will do that, because [coming together with invative and creative ideas] is what we like to do,” he said.